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ES Futures Intelligence

Risk budgeting

Pre-market volatility estimation for S&P 500. Quantitative risk model built to frame volatility context and position sizing before the bell rings.

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Why Assetly exists

Your capital. Your own risk desk.

Bring the discipline of a professional trading desk to your own capital. Assetly connects portfolio exposure, position sizing and trading performance in one workspace—so every decision has a place in your wider risk picture.

Capital preservation starts before the next trade. Understand what is already exposed, decide how much more you can put at risk, and review the losses behind your results. Keeping capital available preserves future choices and gives compounding time to work.

One focus. Three perspectives on risk.

Assets Allocation · See risk across your capital. Understand how your capital is distributed, where exposure is concentrated and how much is committed to trading. Put each decision in the context of your wider portfolio.

Position Sizing · Budget risk before the session. Prepare your ES position budget with a deliberately defensive quantitative model built on 15 years of market data. Connect session conditions with your capital and loss allowance before taking exposure.

Trading Performance · Understand the risk behind your returns. Review imported trading activity, equity curves, drawdowns and performance after costs. Understand the losses taken to achieve your returns and use that evidence to inform your next risk budget.

From context to sizing

Three steps toward a more structured session.

  1. 01Risk Model

    Start with the market context.

    Bring pre-market inputs into one structured view, so volatility conditions have a place in your risk assessment before the session begins.

    Input categories

    • Historical session ranges
    • Pre-market market conditions
    • Scheduled market catalysts

    Organized into a common volatility context.

  2. 02Volatility Estimation

    See the range in context.

    Use a quantified estimate of the ES session range to frame potential movement before the open. An estimate provides context; actual movement can differ.

    Historical sample · September 9, 2026

    Volatility and sizing reference

    Realized session range36.25 pts
    Estimated interval · midpoint 62.5 pts50–75 pts
    Position sizing reference75 pts

    Position sizing references the upper estimate: 75 points.

    A deliberately defensive estimate

    Favoring overestimation of the realized session range. This defensive approach reflects the asymmetry of risk with high ES leverage: a false flag may mean missing a profitable day, while failing to flag a high-volatility session may mean losing the account. A higher estimate reduces the modeled position budget.

  3. 03Quantitative Workflow

    Connect context to your risk budget.

    Bring volatility context together with your account constraints and risk settings to support a more consistent position sizing process.

    Sizing workflow

    1. Review session volatility
    2. Set account and risk constraints
    3. Review position sizing

    Session range is one input. Position risk also depends on trade-level assumptions.

Beyond the session

A broader view of your risk.

Start with volatility around the S&P 500. Build a wider risk workflow through capital allocation, position sizing, and trading performance.

Assets Allocation
Plan how capital is distributed across your portfolio.
Position Sizing
Bring ES session volatility and account constraints into your position budget.
Trading Performance
Review your trading history to understand how your trading decisions played out.

Notifications provides a supporting board for reviewing updates alongside this workflow.

Prepare before the bell

Put your risk budget.